The paper "Leveraging Growth Patterns for Quantum Computing" argues that progress in quantum computing does not follow smooth exponential curves but instead occurs through irregular leaps. Using the sequence (4 → 16 → 48 → 139 → ...) as a framework, the author suggests that breakthroughs in areas like logical qubit scaling, error correction, connectivity, coherence, and algorithms often happen when multiple innovations align, triggering step-changes in capability.
The paper develops mathematical models (recurrence relations, percolation thresholds, Bayesian change-point detection) to formalize this leap-based growth and provides case studies across superconducting, trapped-ion, and emerging topological qubit platforms. It emphasizes the need for modular architectures, milestone-driven roadmaps, and high-risk/high-reward funding strategies, since small improvements can suddenly combine to produce major advances.
Overall, the work offers a new lens for forecasting and guiding quantum computing progress, shifting attention from steady qubit counts to discrete breakthroughs that redefine the trajectory of the field.